Yesterday I was equivocal today I am sure, Ireland must vote No to the fiscal compact in the forthcoming referendum.
The next few months will be crucial in Irish politics but not because of the referendum on the fiscal compact. It will be the attitude and stance of Irish politicians that will be crucial for their futures.
The fact is that the likely, almost sure, winner of May's French presidential election will be Francois Hollande. Based on current polls even if Hollande went on holidays for the next two months he will still beat Sarkozy.
One of Hollande's key platforms is that he will not sign up to this fiscal compact unless there is also a European ideal and plan for growth hardwired into the treaty changes. Hollande wants to renegotiate France's treaties with Germany and therefore the EU. He wants growth not cuts and as the second most powerful country in the Euro-zone he will put Merkel and Sarkozy's plans in their grave.
Therefore, Irish politicians who peg their credibility on Merkel's, Lutheran, former Commie austerity nonsense, by advocating a Yes to austerity vote, will be running against an inevitability.
That inevitability is that this fiscal compact is dead in the water no matter what way Ireland votes. However by the time Ireland votes it will be clear who has won the French election and if it is Hollande then a No vote will be a No brainer for Ireland. However politicians who say vote yes today will have a hard job trying to say vote no in two months when the issue is clearer than crystal.
Irish politicians who peg their credibility on advocating a Yes vote today will show that they have no foresight, no broad view of Europe and therefore are not worthy of being elected representatives of the Irish people. Many loose cannons will advocate a no vote for various reasons but that does not mean they are qualified to replace the present useless government run by a gormless plank, Enda Kenny and a discredited Labour party.
Some intelligent reasons to vote No are
1/ German economic strategy helped create this crisis and Merkel's fiscal ideas will compound it for at least a decade further than necessary, voting No will add our voice in opposition to her plans
2/ By voting NO Ireland will strengthen Francois Hollande's position on renegotiating the treaty and inputting a guarantee that Europe will seek growth not cuts.
It is likely that several centre right governments in Europe will welcome this and with Sarko gone will breath a sigh of relief that they are not being badgered. With Merkel being pushed to to one side it will be a case of Germany leaving the Euro-zone if they don't like it rather bullying Ireland and the rest of the European nations.
3/ rejecting the treaty changes has NO bearing on Ireland's continued membership of the Euro-zone.
4/ A strong No vote will help restore our national dignity in the face of bullying and incomprehensible political decisions by both the last FF/Green government and the current even more rudderless Fine Gael Labour one.
5/ Just because you can ....
Vote No and be on the side of the growth compact advocated by Francois Hollande.
Vote No and restore our national pride and Ireland's place at the heart of Europe.
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On the same side as Ganley? Interesting turnaround.
ReplyDeletePerhaps but for wildly different reasons. I have faith that when the French socialists take power in May they will reject the fiscal compact and we will be off that hook.
ReplyDeleteNo turnaround at all as I never support the bailout of the banks and see this as a further extension of similar thinking. It makes no sense for Ireland to be a Lemming state.
As for Herr Ganley he seems to be preoccupied trying to stop a statue of Che being erected in Galway claiming that Che was a mass murderer.
Of course the board of Ganley's Rivada company is riddled with men that the civilians of Iraq and Afghanistan might consider mass murderers.
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ReplyDeleteUpdate Anonymous Ganley does not know which side he is on see http://www.thejournal.ie/declan-ganley-ill-join-either-yes-or-no-campaign-for-referendum-371238-Mar2012/
ReplyDeleteas of Friday 3 March 2012 "DECLAN GANLEY HAS confirmed he will be involved in campaigning before a referendum on the Fiscal Compact, but said he doesn’t yet know which side he will be on."
Unlike a wannabe hustler like Ganley People Korps is on the side of the righteous and it took me 12 hours to decide between Yes if we get a deal or No if we did not and concluding that deal or no deal Ireland should vite NO. Why? because despite any deals the compact is dead in the water. Merkozy is over and Merkel will then be isolated and growth can replace austerity.
Vote No you wont regret it
Very good piece of reasoning. Shame I am not Irish so I could vote No with you.
ReplyDeleteThe reason why the USA is bouncing back 4 years after our 2008 fiasco is cos NO austerity measures over here!!
Tightening the austerity rope around your neck will only drag down your country's economy..etc ...take a look at NYT's Krugman pieces every now and then.